The Herd plays its first Conference USA home game of the 2006-07 season tonight at the Cam against the Golden Knights of Central Florida. Which team will show up? The one that beat 9-3 Virginia Tech and 9-3 Ohio in back-to-back games or the one that lost to Missouri-Kansas City and Robert Morris? It's always impossible to tell with this Herd team that often shows flashes of potential but also has episodes that make you wonder if you're watching D-I basketball. They followed up those two nice home wins with two losses to George Washington and UTEP. The loss at GW was the typical get up by 20 and blow it Marshall special while the loss in El Paso was an old-fashioned ass beating. UCF comes into Huntington after a heartbreaking loss at UAB. The Knights led by 2 until the Blazers hit a game-tying shot at the buzzer and then proceeded to win by 10 in overtime.
It's hard to tell who will win this game, but it's a pretty good bet that it will be close. Marshall's six home games have been decided by a total 25 points with the largest margin a 10 point win over Ohio, and even that game was a lot closer than the score indicates. UCF has a pretty good record, but most of their wins came against cupcakes - their only respectable victory was a six-point home defeat of Utah.
I think Marshall will be a little hungrier for this win. UCF is going to come out still bummed about the UAB loss and will underestimate the Herd. Marshall will take advantage and get out to a 15-20 point lead by early in the 2nd half. The Knights will wake up, decide to play, and rally to make it close (helped by poor Thundering Herd free throw shooting of course), but it will be too late. Marshall gets on the W column in the C-USA standings.
Prediction: Marshall 74 UCF 69
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